No We Can't

As I mentioned in previous posts, a number of people contacted me about my Globe piece. One of those people is Dr. Helmut Burkhardt, a Professor of Physics Emeritus at Ryerson University in Toronto. Dr. Burkhardt wanted me to know about a paper he published in 2006 entitled Physical Limits to Large Scale Biomass Generation for Replacing Fossil Fuels.

Dr. Burkhardt's paper helped me to understand the arithmetic of energy generation and consumption. Of the many facts and figures he presents, I found this passage particularly useful:

"The problem of large scale global use of biomass can be visualized by comparing it with food energy. A person needs some 100W of food energy - some 2000 kCal per day. Feeding the present world energy system with biomass power of 2300 W/person [current average power consumption per person] is equivalent to feeding 23 'energy slaves' for each person. It is quite obvious that a healthy World ecosystem cannot spare sufficient biomass production to feed the equivalent of 156 billion human beings."

So there are some hard numbers, for perspective. But as you know, I like to liven up hard numbers with intangibles. So here's a bit of touchy-feely stuff...

One very cold day early in the month, I found myself thinking that this business of saving the planet was lots of work. And while Toronto is a great place in June - in January, well not so much. Now just so you know, I am neither a martyr nor a saint. So I did what any normal person that just spent half his assets on a newspaper ad would do. I packed my bags and the next day my laptop and I were in New Orleans, getting ready to start a two month road trip to California and back.

Have you ever driven through the American Southwest? You should. Make sure to get off the interstate to experience the desert from the back roads. Get out of the car and walk. You'll soon see that, far from being dry and dead, the southwest desert is a wondrous place, full of life. Mesquite, creosote, agave and yucca. Roadrunners, javelinas and rattlesnakes. Broad expanses of mountains, rolling hills and open range. Endless blue sky.

Americans are a lucky bunch.

Spirituality is very personal and I don't like to talk about mine publicly. But I will say this: If this blue sphere of ours is nothing but an accident, it's one helluva of a beautiful accident indeed. During my travels I've been meeting many people - ordinary Americans, foreign tourists, parks staff, and a surprising number of Canucks - that are very committed to respecting and protecting this little accident of ours.

Unfortunately, that's not the case for everybody. Despite the physical impossibility of using plant matter to make a significant dent in our energy requirements, our governments are ignoring math and science and getting ready to dive headfirst into biomass as an alternative energy source.

And then there are people like the anonymous poster that left this telling comment to my post Farmers, and the Yin and Yang of Advocating:

"Dude, here's the fact: Ethanol = Sugar + Yeast. The planet is full of sugar, there are 70 million acres of mesquite in the US southwest with starch pods full of it - it just needs to be harvested."

How do you folks in West Texas, New Mexico and Arizona feel about that?

There you have it. If we want, we can fool ourselves into creating a "new economy" that subsidizes people to cut down, burn and plough over all of our remaining wilderness. There is no shortage of people ready to do just that if there is money to be made. But with all the wishful thinking in the world, it will not make a significant dent in our energy requirements because it is a physical impossibility.

So no, Mr. Obama, you can't.

You just can't.

But don't just take it from me

Happy New Year everyone!

I wanted to let you know that excellent feedback is continuing to flow about my article. I have heard from at least 15 PhDs, including business profs, agronomists, and environmental scientists who tell me my argument is bang on. Interestingly, many of them can't actually say so publicly because taking an advocacy position could be considered a professional conflict of interest. Similarly, I have heard from a number of private individuals who are involved with charitable organizations in the environmental and anti-poverty fields. They too are in agreement with me, but they can't say so publicly in a professional capacity, because guess what? Charitable organizations are not allowed to take a political stance.

Doesn't seem right to me. In fact, it sounds kind of like muzzling.

Mes amis, if trying to save the planet from running out of food and people from starving to death is considered too political these days, then go ahead. Paint me political.

Luckily, and just in the nick of time, I dug up a little scientific and business research to back my case up.

This paper by Dr. Mark Jacobson of Stanford's Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering ranks corn and cellulosic ethanol DEAD LAST out of twelve new technology solutions for global warming, air pollution and energy security. The paper is very technical so it should satisfy all of you science types. And it is in the public domain, so I can use it. This article from RenewableEnergyWorld.com, also in the public domain, talks about Dr. Jacobson's paper in terms that are easier for the rest of us to grasp. Here is an excerpt:

"The energy alternatives that are good are not the ones that people have been talking about the most. And some options that have been proposed are just downright awful," Jacobson said. "Ethanol-based biofuels will actually cause more harm to human health, wildlife, water supply and land use than current fossil fuels." He added that ethanol may also emit more global-warming pollutants than fossil fuels, according to the latest scientific studies.

The raw energy sources that Jacobson found to be the most promising are, in order, wind, concentrated solar (the use of mirrors to heat a fluid), geothermal, tidal, solar photovoltaics (rooftop solar panels), wave and hydroelectric. He recommends against nuclear, coal with carbon capture and sequestration, corn ethanol and cellulosic ethanol, which is made of prairie grass. In fact, he found cellulosic ethanol was worse than corn ethanol because it results in more air pollution, requires more land to produce and causes more damage to wildlife."

This paper, also by Dr. Jacobson, studies the health effects of ethanol as compared to gasoline. Here is an excerpt:

"Due to its ozone effects, future E85 may be a greater overall public health risk than gasoline. However, because of the uncertainty in future emission regulations, it can be concluded with confidence only that E85 is unlikely to improve air quality over future gasoline vehicles."

Next, this paper, by Dr David Pimentel, of Cornell's College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, looks at ethanol from the standpoint of an agricultural scientist. Here is an excerpt from Dr. Pimentel's review:

"The environmental impacts of corn ethanol are serious and diverse. These include severe soil erosion of valuable cropland, plus the heavy use of nitrogen fertilizer and pesticides that pollute rivers. Large quantities of carbon dioxide are produced and released into the atmosphere because significant amounts of fossil fuel energy are used in ethanol production. Then during the fermentation process, about 25% of the carbon from the sugars and starches is released as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. These two major releases of carbon dioxide significantly contribute to global warming."

Finally, in case you think I'm just making the whole supply/demand/stock levels thing up, take a look at a December 11 article from Canada's GlobeInvestor online business magazine entitled Appetite for Grains About to Revive? Here are a few excerpts from that piece:

"Analysts point to the fact that the amount of wheat, corn and soybeans left unconsumed at the end of the crop year is at historically low levels at a time when the world’s population is growing. While the world wheat crop was the largest ever this year, surplus stocks are the fourth-lowest in 50 years, notes Don Bousquet, a grains market analyst and the host of the long-running Farm Market News broadcast heard on rural radio stations across Western Canada. Farmers next year are expected to cut back on wheat acres planted, given the recent price decline and the high cost of fertilizer, he said. Meanwhile, the U.S. corn crop is expected to be the second-largest on record this year, but surplus stocks should be among the lowest, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It’s a similar case with soybeans.

...

Another source of strong demand – the push for renewable fuels. In mid-November, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency raised the 2009 renewable fuel standard to 10.21 per cent to ensure at least 11.1 billion gallons of renewable fuels are blended into transportation gasoline. That calls for about 500 million gallons of biodiesel and renewable diesel. Nearly 40 per cent of the U.S. corn crop this year will go towards making ethanol for gasoline, and that percentage will increase in coming years, according to Patricia Mohr, vice-president of Scotia Economics in Toronto.

...

“On a supply-demand basis, grains are now greatly under-priced,” Mr. Coxe wrote in a recent report."

Ethanol. A real stinker on the verge of asphyxiating just about everyone on the planet with the possible exception of a few grain speculators. I'm not the only one thinking it.

I've just spent an entire year of my life struggling to fight what has turned into a mammoth battle between good and evil. David and Goliath for the twenty-first century. This is my life's work. I was given a brain, insight, ideals, a backbone, and the responsibility to use them. I am more fortunate than anyone can know.

I will continue to lead this fight against city hall - with the support of many wonderful people, the smarts of a couple of great brains from Stanford and Cornell, the insight of business gurus from Canada's National Newspaper, and a trusty electronic megaphone on my lap to slay a mighty dragon with. The world will watch in awe as the forces of good PREVAIL.